The Great Replacement Boom is coming!

The Great Replacement Boom is coming!

Most of you probably remember the great housing bubble that ended during the middle of the last decade. Since then, the U.S. has experienced what could only be described as a dismal housing market, in which the current seasonally adjusted annual number of single-family homes sold hovers around 370,000.

The U.S. Census Bureau reports that back in 1994, 1.34 million homes (single and multi-family) were completed, a greater than 10% increase over 1993. This began an upward trend in which the number of houses built each year ranged between 1.3 to 1.5 million through 1998. But it was from 1999 through 2006 when the housing boom really took place. During that time, nearly 14 million homes were built – more than 1.7 million each year.

So the big boom started about 13 years ago. Why is that significant? Because a lot of appliances are about to wear out.  According to Appliance Magazine the average life expectancy for refrigerators is 13 years.  So that means at one refrigerator per home, 12 million refrigerators will likely need to be replaced between now and 2020. Washers, dryers, dishwashers and water heaters all have similar life expectancies. Add another 48 million combined appliances, and we have a potential replacement opportunity of 60 million. And I almost forgot to add stoves and ranges (which have a longer life expectancy of closer to 16 years) and microwaves (which are closer to 10 years). All told, we could be looking at 75 million unit replacements over the next seven years.

Now consider HVAC systems, which typically last 15 to 20 years. Starting around 2014, we could see a need to replace one to two million HVAC systems each year. And while one can argue about average life expectancies, these once-new items will eventually need to be replaced sooner rather than later. There is no denying the fact the U.S. is about to enter into an extended replacement boom.

It’s important for contractors, retailers, manufacturers and utilities to be ready for the boom with programs in-place to ensure homeowners make the right choices to purchase not only new units, but the most energy-efficient units. Stay tuned for next week’s post on the challenges associated with that — and how to overcome them.

About the Author

Jim Lyza

Jim Lyza

Jim is a former contributor to Shelton Insights.

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Suzanne Shelton

President and CEO

Suzanne is the voice and the vision of Shelton Group. Drawing on her extensive experience in energy and the environment – and 25+ years in the marketing and advertising industry – Suzanne provides high-level strategic insights for our clients and guidance for our research and creative departments. She regularly speaks at conferences around the country, including Sustainable Brands, Fortune Brainstorm E and the International Builders’ Show, and serves as a guest columnist for publications like Fast Company, Green Builder and

Susannah Enkema

VP Research & Insights

Susannah directs our research team and plays a key role in extracting the nuggets of information that pave the way for recommended marketing strategies and creative approaches. Susannah has nearly two decades of market research and strategy experience, including her role as president of SE Consulting, where she led the services for the likes of DIY Network and the makers of GORE-TEX®.

Matt Brass

VP Creative

Matt steers the creative department in concepting, designing and producing campaigns. He ensures sound strategy and deep insights inform everything his team develops, and works closely with the accounts department to ensure copy and designs will meet our clients’ goals. As a designer and filmmaker himself, he’s also a principal contributor to all of Shelton’s in-house photography and videography work.

Courtnay Hamachek

VP Operations

Courtnay oversees our day-to-day operations to keep us running smoothly and support our growth. She establishes project management systems and processes to help our teams anticipate bottlenecks, prevent process issues, and keep projects on time and on target. Courtnay has built extensive experience over 25 years in all aspects of marketing, from account services and project management to design and production.

Aaron Crecy

Digital Marketing Director

Aaron is responsible for planning, executing and measuring digital marketing strategies for Shelton Group and our clients, with an emphasis on inbound, content, SEO, social media, email and paid initiatives. He constantly researches and explores new tactics and strategies to improve digital campaign performance and results.

Aaron brings to the table more than 20 years of marketing leadership experience with premium consumer-facing brands. He came to Shelton Group by way of Malibu Boats, where, as Director of Global Marketing, he oversaw strategic marketing planning and execution for multiple product lines, with specific emphasis on social media and digital. Prior to that, he served as CMO for a leading daily fantasy sports operator, guiding it from startup to the industry’s third-ranked site.

Scot Case

Senior Consultant

A sustainability strategy consultant since 1993, Scot has served as non-profit leader, as a partner in an environmental marketing firm that he grew and sold, and as an executive in a multi-billion-dollar, international company. He has published dozens of articles and case studies, was co-author of the original “Sins of Greenwashing” study, testified before Congress, and been quoted on NPR, Good Morning America, CNN, The New York Times, Business Week, and the Wall Street Journal. Scot was also highlighted in an Emmy award-winning documentary on sustainable purchasing.

Casey Ward

VP Account Services

Casey manages our relationships, growth and development with a specific group of clients that includes Environmental Defense Fund, Cotton LEADS and CertainTeed Insulation. She provides leadership and support for the account team members who manage the day-to-day processes for these clients. She contributes to strategic direction for each client and guides our creative efforts to ensure everything we do builds toward meeting – or exceeding – the client’s goals. Her ability to simultaneously see the big picture and pay close attention to the details helps her champion her clients’ needs and identify new growth opportunities for them.